Media Mix Modelling: A Game-Changer or Just Marketing’s Favourite Mirage?

On February 19th, ADMATIC joined the industry in celebrating the IMAA‘s 5th anniversary at the Indie-Pendance agency conference. Unsurprisingly, every panelist dropped 2024/2025’s hottest buzzword—Measurement—with a heavy emphasis on Triple M (Media Mix Modelling), underscoring the growing challenge of ineffective measurement systems and the struggle to prove real business impact. We get it—measurement matters. But simply name-dropping the BIG M doesn’t solve the problem.
So, let’s break it down. What is MMM? What challenges does it face? Have we seen real success in the market, or is it just another Fata Morgana that CMOs, agency leads, and tech experts desperately want to believe in?

1. The Big Promise of Media Mix Modelling

Think of MMM like crafting the perfect Aussie meat pie—simple, classic, but with a mix of ingredients that determine how good it actually tastes. Your marketing budget is the pie, the ingredients are the channels, and MMM is the recipe trying to figure out which ingredients (channels) contributed to the overall flavour. But here’s the catch: MMM isn’t always as straightforward as the best pie recipe. It’s like a chef trying to recreate a pie they’ve never tasted before, relying on past recipes, but without the ability to adjust in real-time when consumer tastes change—like when the trend shifts from meat pies to vegan options. Without the right data, it could end up in a soggy mess.

What’s the point here? MMM is valuable for big-picture planning, but it’s not the real-time taste test that brands need to fine-tune their marketing mix as trends change.

2. The Mirage – Where Media Mix Modelling Falls Short

MMM falls short in several key areas. First, it relies on historical data, which can’t keep up with real-time shifts in market trends or consumer behaviour. It often misses the nuance of smaller, targeted campaigns, and poor data quality can skew results. While MMM looks at the big picture, it assumes past success guarantees future results, which isn’t always the case, especially if the market changes. Finally, it’s resource-heavy and costly, making it difficult to stay agile. 

In short, while MMM is valuable for long-term planning and big budget clients, it’s not the best tool for real-time decisions or agile marketing.

3. The Smarter Approach: Insights That Drive Action

While MMM is valuable for big-picture planning, it should never be your only tool. Just like a pie shop needs more than one filling to keep customers coming back, measurement needs a combination of hygiene metrics, incrementality testing, and real-time insights. The future of measurement is about agility—leveraging the right tools at the right time to achieve real business impact. Our Head of Technology, Jerome Velasquez, puts it best:  

“Media Mix Modelling provides a strong retrospective view, but we must be aware of its limitations when it comes to dynamic market conditions. We believe that a robust measurement system integrates overarching decisioning from MMM with real-time analytics, causal inference and controlled experimentation to drive precise, actionable insights that translate into competitive advantage.”

While we all hope for a one-size-fits-all solution, relying solely on MMM won’t solve this challenge. It can be a key ingredient, but it’s not the entire recipe for success. Want to build a smarter measurement strategy? Get in touch with an ADMATICian today to learn how we can help.

…and if you’re anything like me and have heard the word ‘pie’ a few too many times in this article, treat yourself to some real ones! Check out this link to the best pie shops in Sydney.